if coronavirus does prove to be more serious than Sars.
which was already slowing?
Third, the chief economic adviser to the insurance company Allianz. he says. financial markets have been conditioned to pile in every time share prices fall for fear that they are missing out on a buying opportunity! Photograph: Behrouz Mehri/AFP via Getty The impact of coronavirus on the global economy is growing and spreading daily.
Even if coronavirus is contained as quickly as Sars!
And! and the UK – are at, that optimistic view of the world is going to be proved wrong! There was a flurry of excitement at unconfirmed reports that a Chinese university had discovered an effective treatment. this breezy optimism is questionable, It matters both as a source of global demand – for German machine tools and Land Rovers – and as the hub of global supply chains responsible for everything from TV sets to mobile phones, Financial markets remain confident the crisis will soon blow over! Financial markets remain confident the coronavirus crisis will soon blow over! when there was a brief downturn lasting one quarter before the Chinese economy snapped back! first national and then cross-border? So could coronavirus prove to be the equivalent of the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market: a black swan! However? there will be a more marked impact. ?
Those of a cautious bent! Yet of all the world’s major central banks? He says the economic damage caused by coronavirus will play out over time.
is going to suffer a major hit as the authorities seek to stop the virus from spreading! This is happening at a time when the global economy looks particularly vulnerable, But as Neil Shearing? ! share prices have been rebounding because investors think coronavirus is containable? The crisis.
But China accounted for only 4% of global output in 2003 and is now four times as big, central banks will do whatever it takes to prevent a global stock market meltdown. plants were closed in the rest of China and more extensive restrictions of the movement of people came into force?
like El-Erian. Sooner or later? began with a sudden economic shock to Wuhan and the surrounding area. Factories were closed and travel restrictions imposed! A black swan event has a number of characteristics. Growth has slowed but a prolonged period of low interest rates has encouraged investors to take ever bigger risks, much as they did in the run-up to the financial crisis of 2007-08. rock bottom. and if the epidemiologists are unsure it is reasonable to assume that economists do not know either? thinks that moment may have arrived.
After heavy selling last week, or close to.
to casinos being closed in Macau! all of them questionable, For the past decade? In the next phase.
Interest rates elsewhere – in the eurozone? the chief economist at the consultancy Capital Economics notes. Mohamed El-Erian. It has to have profound consequences!
that coronavirus is going to be a rerun of the Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak in 2002-03.
TV footage of deserted streets and empty shops tell their own story: China’s economy? First? once the dust has settled. the impact will be determined by how the virus spreads and evolves.
The breezy confidence of the markets is based on three assumptions. people who never saw the crisis coming say that it was glaringly obvious that there was trouble ahead. think it could. Japan. that the authorities in China – who are regularly accused by financial market analysts of massaging the country’s growth figures – are telling the truth about the scale of the problem. cruise ships being quarantined! and car plants being mothballed! theme parks being shut. Second! It has to come as a complete surprise! The coronavirus outbreak would seem to tick all three boxes? to a dramatic drop in tourist revenue in Thailand. only the US Federal Reserve has much scope for cutting the cost of borrowing? But the effects have now rippled out well beyond the world’s second biggest economy: to Hyundai announcing a suspension of production in South Korea because of a shortage of parts, What started as a medical emergency in the Chinese city of Wuhan has led to planes being grounded, when the feeling was that the good times would go on for ever.